When do you think Nintendo will be releasing their next console? Keep in mind the Wii is still selling decent, also Nintendo just announced they have sold more systems than the PS2, when the PS2 was the same as as the Wii...
The PS2 has sold,
At least 145.4 million (as of June 30, 2010)
The Wii has sold,
Worldwide: 73.97 million (as of June 30, 2010) (details)
Last year the Wii only sold 8.86 million systems, and their weekly sells are dropping below two hundred thousand, meaning they are looking at selling, 9.6 million a year, roughly. They need roughly 73 million more, which is around six more years to sell more systems than the PS2.
(Sorry if my math is wrong, its like 4:00am here, got woken up, and this was on my mind, as I was talking to my wife about this. :P)
The only upgrades Nintendo can really make with a new console, compared to the others, is, HD, and DLC, also a new disk format that can hold more memory, allowing the console to support better graphics. Though that is not the focus of Nintendo. Also, the fact that Nintendo compared their console to the PS2, leads me to believe that they are trying to outsell the PS2, which at the current rate will take a few more years. Wii is still selling, but the sells have began dropping.
The 360 has still not release Natel, or whatever it is called, though their new 360 Slims are compatible with the feature, meaning it will be released this generation.
Lastly, the PS3. Sony said sometime, not sure when, that they are hoping to market the PS3 for ten years, as long as the PS2, and the PS2 system is their proof that they are able to do this...
A few notes. I am not sure why, but the three major console companies don't really release new consoles to far ahead of the others, Microsoft released the 360 a year early, and suffered many problems because of it, so I doubt it will really happen again.
Considering Microsoft is still yet to release Natel, and depending on how that sells, will determine the life span for the 360.
With all of this, when do you think Nintendo will be releasing their next REAL console. This does not count Nintendo releasing an UPGRADED version of the current system, one that supports HD... (If they release one). So what do all of you think?
Here are my predictions.
2011: Probably around a 30% chance they will announce the release of a new system. They are releasing 3DS this year, and will probably be focusing on this for the time being.
2012: Probably a 50% chance depending on what they announce for their system in 2011. If they begin working on a new project for Wii, and their sells begin improving, they won't be releasing it this year.
2013: 50% chance again, again this depends on the year before. If they still aren't focusing on their console, and their sells have not improved, a new console may be announced. Though Nintendo still has more than a few great games they can release on their virtual console.
2014: 80% chance. The Wii is eight years old now, unless they released something for it, it will not have kept interest this long. A new console being announced is highly likely.
2015: 80% chance. Depending on how the other companies are fairing, the Wii is way overdue for a new console.
2016:100% Chance. If the Wii has lasted this long, well done. Ten years have gone by, they have out sold the PS2, and Nintendo will be releasing another great product. Anytime past this year, will be VERY impressive, and begin to just seem old.
The DS is six years old, and have not seen a fully new system released. This leads me to believe that Nintendo will at least have their console six years, and if sells begin dropping, they will release new colors, and upgraded versions of the same console.
(This is all for now, though I will probably add, and edit this post when I wake up in the morning. Some of this information is my own opinions, and if you disagree that is fine, but please be respectful, and no flaming...) Thank you and enjoy.